Browsing by Author "Morales Quiroga, Mauricio"
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Item Chile's perfect storm: social upheaval, COVID-19 and the constitutional referendumAutores: Morales Quiroga, MauricioWhy did one of Latin America's most stable democracies experience a social upheaval that forced the political class to organise a referendum to rewrite the current constitution? To what degree did the COVID-19 pandemic influence the development of the constitutional referendum of October 2020? What institutional paths will open for Chile when the new constitution comes into force? In this article, it is suggested, first, that Chile successfully reduced poverty levels but inequality was reduced more slowly, which contributed to generating discontent with democracy. Second, that Chile has had a long-term crisis of representation, with a rigid party system which partially changed in 2017 due to the implementation of a new electoral system. Third, that in the 2020 constitutional referendum the lower-income sectors - whose COVID 19 infection rates were higher than the rest of the population - surprisingly turned out to vote in greater numbers than in previous elections. Fourth, that Chile is beginning a constitutional process blighted by uncertainty, polarisation and political instability, which will culminate only with the referendum in mid-2022 to approve or reject the new constitution.Item Evolución de las percepciones sobre migración en Chile 2005-2017Autores: Caro Peñaloza, Yanira AndreaProfesor Guía: Morales Quiroga, MauricioItem Políticas públicas de fomento forestal en Chile: un análisis desde la conducta legislativa 1990 – 2008Autores: Reyes Vera, Natalia AndreaProfesor Guía: Morales Quiroga, MauricioItem The Impact of Candidates' Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics ApproachAutores: Campos Valdés, Camilo; Alvarez Miranda, Eduardo; Morales Quiroga, Mauricio; Pereira, Jordi; Liberona Durán, FelixIn recent years, a wide range of techniques has been developed to predict electoral results and to measure the influence of different factors in these results. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the political profile of candidates (characterized by personal and political features) and their campaign effort (characterized by electoral expenditure and by territorial deployment strategies retrieved from social networks activity) on the electoral results. This analysis is carried out by using three of the most frequent data analyitcs algorithms in the literature. For our analysis, we consider the 2017 Parliamentary elections in Chile, which are the first elections after a major reform of the electoral system, that encompassed a transition from a binomial to a proportional system, a modification of the districts' structure, an increase in the number of seats, and the requirement of gender parity in the lists of the different coalitions. The obtained results reveal that, regardless of the political coalition, the electoral experience of candidates, in particular in the same seat they are running for (even when the corresponding district is modified), is by large the most influential factor to explain the electoral results. However, the attained results show that the influence of other features, such as campaign expenditures, depends on the political coalition. Additionally, by means of a simulation procedure, we show how different levels of territorial deployment efforts might impact on the results of candidates. This procedure could be used by parties and coalitions when planning their campaign strategies.Item Vinculación no programática en la gestión municipal: las agendas de los alcaldes, 2015-2016.Autores: Soto Belmar, Fabián AndrésProfesor Guía: Morales Quiroga, MauricioEn este trabajo se investiga la vinculación que desarrollan los alcaldes con sus electores mediante instancias formales de mediación. Generalmente, se asocia la vinculación no programática con prácticas informales o reñidas con la probidad, propia de sociedades preindustriales y en vías de modernización. A pesar de esto, existe evidencia que señala que las redes de mediación política han estado presentes incluso en países altamente institucionalizados. En el caso de Chile, las agendas de los alcaldes deben ser transparentadas, por lo que es posible acceder a los registros de las reuniones que han mantenido en su calidad de autoridad comunal. Debido a que es una normativa reciente y con poca fiscalización, los alcaldes han utilizado esta herramienta de manera discrecional para vincularse con la ciudadanía y así evitar ciertas trabas burocráticas en la resolución de ciertos requerimientos. En términos generales, los resultados del análisis muestran que las variables sociodemográficas de las comunas son determinantes en el volumen de audiencias. Asimismo, la preferencia por este tipo de mediación no guarda relación con la filiación política de los alcaldes, sino que es determinado por el capital político que maneja -individualmente- cada uno de ellos. Palabras clave: audiencias – vinculación no programática - clientelismo - alcaldes - ley del lobby
