The Impact of Candidates' Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach

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datacite.creatorCampos Valdés, Camilo
datacite.creatorAlvarez Miranda, Eduardo
datacite.creatorMorales Quiroga, Mauricio
datacite.creatorPereira, Jordi
datacite.creatorLiberona Durán, Felix
datacite.date.issued2021
datacite.identifierDOI
datacite.identifier.doi10.3390/math9080902
datacite.identifier.issn2227-7390
datacite.identifier.orcid0000-0002-7788-0451
datacite.identifier.orcid0000-0001-6010-9604
datacite.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8037-1781
datacite.identifier.orcid0000-0002-1736-3575
datacite.identifier.wosidWOS:000644524000001
datacite.rightsAcceso abierto
datacite.size17 p.
datacite.subjectChilean parliamentary election
datacite.subjectCandidate profiles
datacite.subjectCampaign efforts
datacite.subjectTerritorial deployment
datacite.titleThe Impact of Candidates' Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-25T18:58:26Z
dc.date.available2024-09-25T18:58:26Z
dc.description.abstractIn recent years, a wide range of techniques has been developed to predict electoral results and to measure the influence of different factors in these results. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the political profile of candidates (characterized by personal and political features) and their campaign effort (characterized by electoral expenditure and by territorial deployment strategies retrieved from social networks activity) on the electoral results. This analysis is carried out by using three of the most frequent data analyitcs algorithms in the literature. For our analysis, we consider the 2017 Parliamentary elections in Chile, which are the first elections after a major reform of the electoral system, that encompassed a transition from a binomial to a proportional system, a modification of the districts' structure, an increase in the number of seats, and the requirement of gender parity in the lists of the different coalitions. The obtained results reveal that, regardless of the political coalition, the electoral experience of candidates, in particular in the same seat they are running for (even when the corresponding district is modified), is by large the most influential factor to explain the electoral results. However, the attained results show that the influence of other features, such as campaign expenditures, depends on the political coalition. Additionally, by means of a simulation procedure, we show how different levels of territorial deployment efforts might impact on the results of candidates. This procedure could be used by parties and coalitions when planning their campaign strategies.
dc.identifier.folio2018-21181055
dc.identifier.folio2020-79200116
dc.identifier.folio1180670
dc.identifier.folioAFB180003
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.utalca.cl/repositorio/handle/1950/14083
dc.languageInglés
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.relation.urihttps://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/8/902
dc.sourceMathematics
oaire.citationIssue9
oaire.citationTitleMathematics
oaire.citationVolume8
oaire.fundingReferenceC. Campos-Valdes acknlowledges the support of the National Agency of Research and Development (ANID), Chile, through the program ANID-PFCHA Doctorado Nacional 2018-21181055, F. Liberona acknlowledges the support of ANID through the program ANID-PCHA Magister para Funcionarios del Sector Publico 2020-79200116, E. Alvarez-Miranda acknowledges the support of ANID through the grant FONDECYT N.1180670 and through the Complex Engineering Systems Institute ANID PIA/BASAL AFB180003.
oaire.licenseConditionhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
oaire.licenseCondition.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
oaire.resourceTypeArtículo de Revista
oaire.versionVersión publicada
utalca.catalogadorPPC
utalca.facultadUniversidad de Talca (Chile). Facultad de Economía y Negocios.
utalca.idcargappc25092024
utalca.indexArtículo indexado en Web of Science
utalca.indexArtículo indexado en Scopus
utalca.informaciondegeneroHombre
utalca.odsReducción de las desigualdades
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